The transcript of the oral arguments in Chaidez, which took place yesterday, can be accessed here. The initial take on the arguments is that less than a majority of the Justices seemed to think that Padilla could be applied retroactively. Moreover, it didn’t seem like this was a case where the outcome would rest on a swing vote; but if there were one, I would say it would be probably be Justice Kennedy.
The arguments were covered by the New York Times and Reuters. The Times also has an editorial today in which it urged the Court to apply Padilla retroactively to Ms. Chaidez’s case and vacate her conviction.